Friday, December 07, 2007

The World's resources are limited - Sandip K . Dasverma

The World resources are limited. This understanding dawned in recent decades, resulting in sky rocketing prices of natural resources. $100/ Crude oil barrel (up from $1.28 in 1970). Iron ore International Market price(IMP) has soared to $100/Tonne( see: http://www.econstats.com/rt_ironore.htm). ($1=Rs. 40)
And is still going up(http://metalsplace.com/news/?a=16372)
By common sense no one will off load stocks, when prices are rising. Thus it is not clear, why the Govt. of Orissa(GOO) is eager to sell off its Iron Ore reserves at throw away prices(Current Royalty Rs. 27/Tonne) to the likes of POSCO or TATAS or Mittals and many others.
In a democracy the only way to stop such deals is by informing/educating public and the civil society.
The cancellation of sale of NALCO couple of years back was an example of education of the civil society and general public. The common alibi is: Royalty prices have been fixed by Govt of India(GOI), not us. But in a democratic free country what prevents the GOO from asking for a revision, at an ad velorem rate? And why this haste in signing off the rights before such a revision?

The following data/numbers will explain, why:
1. In 2006 GOO leased mines raised 47.6 million Tonnes of Iron Ore. This has brought the miners, $4.76 billion at the international market price of $100/ Tonne. The cost of raising and transporting is only $450 million. So a net profit of $4 billion has gone to the miners or ISP(Integrated Steel Plants).
If OMC(Orissa Mining Corporation, a public sector undertaking owned by GOO) handled the whole business, GOO would have profited by $4.00 billion or Rs. 16 thousand crores.
2. But OMC can’t, because it is undermined by both inefficiency, corruption & the political influence of the mining lobby.
3. Thus mining rights were doled out to the private mining companies, who mostly export and to ISP, who mine and process. Miners & ISPs, paid only $30 million(Rs. 120 crores) as Royalty, Rs. 24($0.60) per Tonne to GOO.
This surely needs to change, if Orissa is not to remain perpetually poor, while it's family silver wire is sold off.

POSCO case - A similar analysis:
1. POSCO will consume 20 million Tonnes of Iron Ore in 12 million ton ISP per year. At Rs. 27($.68) it will pay 54 crores/ year. However the ore price is Rs. 8000 crores (Rs. 4000 X 20 MT)
2. At current prices GOO will give away rights for $60 billion or 240,000 crores worth Iron Ore for a mere 1620 crores. The price is expected to rise between 20 to 50%(http://metalsplace.com/news/?a=16372). Incidentally while GOO is selling it’s assets, China is trying to buy mining company Rin Tinto for $350 billions for it’s mining leases. In other words the Orissa lease will increase POSCO nett worth by $60 billion plus.
3. MOU has a clause by which POSCO will ship out 72000 crore ($18 billion) worth(30%) Iron Ore to it’s other plants, through it’s own port? It has to pay $18 billion plus the transport to bring it back. Who will keep account? At the end POSCO will probably go for arbitration and even if they pay $1 billion as fines, they will come out ahead.
4. This is added to the fact that when the plant machinery comes it will pay no taxes, since they have manipulated to get an SEZ, from GOI.
5. They don’t pay for water,for coal, dolomite, chromite etc.
6. They don’t have a clause in the MOU to restore land and treat their effluent, since laws of the land are not applicable to SEZ.

My recommendations:
Three ad velorem Royalty rates:
1. 50% for ISPs in Orissa, applicable to POSCO. They pay all taxes to the GOO, the main advantage of having an instate ISP. At this rate POSCO plant will bring Rs.4000 crores (20 MT X Rs. 4000 X 0.5) per year, same as current GOO budget.
2. 60% for ISPs in other Indian states. (Currently about 5 Million Tonne, will bring Rs. 1200 crores)
3. And 80% for the mining companies, to export. (Current 45 Million Tonne, will bring to GOO, Rs. 14,400 crores/year)
4. All environmental laws should be operative.
5. The R & R is a minor 4.5 % of the current give away to the ISPs and also one time only. All evictees should be fully compensated. The 900 crore payout is 20 lakh / acre per of 4500 acres of land to be acquired. I think they should be paid 10 lakhs and be given other 10 lakhs as postal saving bank deposits.

Common sense should prevail:
GOO should give first priority to change the GOI policy. Because they are losing out nearly 20 thousand crores per year for each of next 30 years.
The MPs and ministers from Orissa, 36Garh, Jharkhand should form an IRON ORE Alliance.
Like the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), they should get together to ask for higher Royalty, for minerals? Recently the CMs have got together and are trying to meet the PM but only to have the mine allocation rights restored to the states, not request to raise the Royalty. This is naïve and only good for the political parties – who can raise election donations from the mining lobby but not good for people of Orissa, who are remaining poor.
For ISPs currently operating in AP, MP, Karnataka and West Bengal, to bring them into IRON ORE Alliance, I have suggested a compromise formula, a Royalty at 60% of the IMP.
The change in above policy is clearly necessary before signing of the POSCO contract. Similar protective steps are necessary before Mittal, Jindal, Tata contracts are signed.

2 comments:

EPGOrissa said...

I agree with you. What is going on right now is a ripoff of the highest magnitude. Unfortunately, the politicians and bureaucrats are easily brought,and the common people are fed dreams of development without anyone specifying the details of these dreams.

Sandip K. Dasverma said...

The following questions were asked to me.
Q1: How do you expect us to make the Centre agree to 50% Royalty on ore prices?

Ans: I am sure you know, CMs of Orissa, Jharkhand, 36 Garh, Rajasthan and Chief Secretary of Karnataka on the 19th December'07, to discuss the suggestions of Mineral Producing States in connection with the recommendation of Hooda Committee. My posting in Agami Orissa is to interest the civil society to meet the CM with a delegation to ask him that he demand revision, when they meet the PM. He does not have to run any more the Delhi with a begging bowl any more. After he has done that I would put all civil society of Orissa on alert like was done in case of NISER to stop the out go of billions from the state in form of loot of the natural resources.

Q2: Can you find an Investor who will agree to these terms and Conditions (i.e. 50% Royalty)?
Ans: Answer is a resounding YES. Though only under the condition that the other 4 states don't become "Digambara", due competition. And even Orissa has further advantages, because these states don't have access to sea, they have to use Orissa's ports, except Rajasthan and Karnataka. If they are paying BRAZIL, Australia they will pay us, unless we don't want to. Why should they if we want to sell them cheap?

1. Because once the five states stop competing with each other, like the OPEC the market price will go up in INDIA, which has already happened in BRAZIL and AUSTRALIA.
2. With 50% Royality, ad valorem, there is still a $40 margin / Tonne,, considering $10 as raising and transport cost. Which means as huge an incentive for POSCO (or TATAs) as 3200 crores per year ($40*20million= $800 million & $1= Rs. 40). That is a lot of incentive, even without SEZ, which should not be allowed. Neither should exporting of 180 milllion tonnes of Ore. Orissa will get 4 thousand crores per year from POSCO alone and prices are rising.
3. Lastly, this question is irrelevant because Nippon Steel, Kobe Steel,Chinese Steel Companies and POSCO itself are procuring iron Ore from International market at this price, so why will they not at 50% the price? Is $800 million upfront a year a small amount for an investment of $12 billion?